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The iPhone Is Inevitable, Give It A Try

Matt Asay just wrote an article about how his Blackberry recently died and he picked up an iPhone after quickly comparing it to the latest RIM offering.

“My reason was simple: I needed something that would sync consistently with my Mac. My Blackberry-to-Mac sync has been hit or miss for the past year (though I’ve been testing a beta of the new PocketMac and it is quite good) and I’m fed up. I just want something that works.”

I’ve had an iPhone since Day One and I think people who don’t like the iPhone may simply change their tune when they handle it, use it, and analyze the overall device when it’s in their hands. Like many others have said, it’s difficult to compare an iPhone against Competitor X by solely looking at a feature comparison chart because the overall experience of the iPhone goes far deeper than just features. It’s lacking some tangible things like a 3G radio, Flash, MMS, but it has many positives like “best UI on any phone”, “simple to figure out how to do things” which are difficult to measure on any kind of chart.

Much has been made of the iPhone SDK and what is and is not allowed, and I believe that it’s just too early to be throwing platitudes around since much will be changing in the next few months leading up to the 2.0 software update. I’ve already found bugs in the SDK and have been in touch with engineers at Apple, and they have assured me that a fix is in the works. The SDK is in beta so Apple may still be figuring out a solution to allow background application processing, who knows. So many people are upset about not being able to run interpreted code but that’s like getting a brand new car and being upset it doesn’t have seat warmers; so much is offered up front and yet the angry voices of the few rise up against the happy developers mainly because those happy developers are under NDA and are busy creating killer applications.

So if you’re in the market for a new phone and need it do more than just make calls, I suggest taking a look at the iPhone. There are refurbished iPhones available for less than the normal cost, so if price is a factor perhaps take a look at those deals. I actually saved about $9 per month when switching from my Blackberry plan to the iPhone’s plan, so for me, getting an iPhone was also an economical decision!

My Data Is My Memory

One barometer for being in the web game for too long is when one can remember a blog entry Jason Fried wrote in August 2005 that relates exactly to what one is currently writing about. The entry to which I am referring was an idea the 37s crew had about information and why you should or should not keep certain types handy:

“Why not read an email and then instantly delete it? Why do we save emails? Why do we archive them in folders for safe keeping? We don’t save phone calls. We have a conversation on the phone and then we hang up. If we need to take notes for whatever reason we do, but 99% of phone calls are completely ephemeral. And if we forget something, or we need it again, we just make another call.”

I was in the camp of people who don’t think this is a good idea, at least for me, since I have an absolutely terrible memory. Fortunately (or unfortunately) for technophiles, almost every piece of information that is now transferred between human beings is stored somewhere. For me, the most important pieces are IM conversations and email, and here are my stats for those:

  • I have every IM conversation I’ve participated in since December 27, 2004 stored and fully searchable by query, date, or participants.
  • I have every email I’ve received/sent since May 2, 2004, which can also be accessed in various ways.

These large data sets may not be as important for normal people, but because my memory is so poor, they’re a necessity in my life. Email search is one of the “killer apps” that I use every single day, and IM conversation search is used at least weekly.

So is memory tied to “being a pack-rat” in regards to technical storage? I’m not sure if it’s a causal relationship but if my computer can store things and keep them out of my brain, then maybe I can use my empty brain cells for other important things. Like Albert Einstein once said:

“Intelligence is not the ability to store information, but to know where to find it.” –Link

Who Wants A Piece of Yahoo?

After Microsoft’s unsolicited bid for Yahoo last week, it seems everyone has their theories about what is actually going to happen. Will Yahoo accept the offer and piss-off most of their employees? Will they hold up their middle finger and realize that they need to get their act together? The only thing we know so far is that there may be alternative outcomes beyond MSFTYHOO.

  • Private Equity Buyout – There’s a slight chance that a private equity firm could purchase Yahoo with the hope of reselling down the road, but it’s a slim one. The credit crisis in America has led to tighter restrictions so we’ve seen fewer private equity acquisitions lately because of this.
  • Apple – CEO Yang has been an admirer of Steve Jobs in the past (and even came on stage to introduce the iPhone) and at least one report has speculated on an Apple buyout. The problem is that Apple doesn’t have enough cash on hand and I can’t see Jobs wanting to blow their cash stash on a company that doesn’t really benefit them. Now if Apple bought Adobe that would make more sense, but Apple Yahoo?
  • Google – Google has reached out to Yahoo in an attempt to outline what a bad decision the MSFT acquisition would be, but it seems Google might be holding all the cards. It’s been noted that most of Yahoo’s core services run on FreeBSD, Apache, and other open source technologies, and Microsoft’s core services run on Windows Server and Microsoft-centric technologies. If Microsoft successfully acquires Yahoo then it might tie up their collective engineering resources for a very long time trying to integrate their platforms, and that would allow Google to really push forward with its Office-killing web applications. People are saying that Google might want to acquire Yahoo, but I think Google’s secretly hoping the acquisition happens so that Google appears to be the most nimble of all technology companies.

Startups And The Recession

There’s no doubt in my mind that the U.S. economy is headed for a recession. The Federal Reserve just cut rates — again — down to 3.50%. This, coupled with oil’s rising prices, the fall of the value of the dollar, the rise in inflation, and the credit lending problems are all pointing to a dramatic downturn in the stock market. Heck, U.S. markets opened today down 5% but managed to come back a few points through solid intraday trading. This isn’t just a random blip on the radar, it’s a signal.

The genius behind the Drama 2.0 blog posted his thoughts on the recession’s effect on the tech industry so I’m going to jump in and post two impacts of the recession right here.

What Will Get Cut First?
When budgets get tight and revenues aren’t as high as they were in the glory days, what will go first is marketing. You can’t dip on your core competencies and get rid of a dozen highly-skilled engineers because then you’re cutting your own throats. Getting rid of your top people and replacing them with low-level morons was the reason that CompUSA went out of business, and cutting the head off your engineering department is a similar mistake.

When advertising gets cut, the ones with the lowest ROI will be the first to get the slash, and that’s going to mean CPM advertising. With CPC, a company is putting all their effort into converting the click on their own website so they control the conversion rates. CPM ads put all the pressure on the publisher to get good click-through rates, and if they’re paying top dollar for CPM rates on popular sites and aren’t getting a good CTR, then it’s a waste of money. AdWords and AdSense aren’t going to drop much, but CPM rates will.

Investors Change Their Tune
VCs have been pouring dollars into companies like paper money is going out of style (*cough*) and 2008 will be the year they take a more careful look at their investments and investment strategy. Investing in pre-revenue companies with no revenue strategy is a lot different than pre-revenue companies that have a solid revenue strategy, and you can guess which type of company won’t be raising as much money this time around. The theory of “past success indicates future success” when it comes to startup founders is going to be flipped around and although an entrepreneur may have had a big name a few years ago, investors will realize it’s a totally new game in 2008. If you’re giving away the cow (the service) and the milk (unique value proposition) for free then you don’t have much of a leg to stand on when it comes time to introduce a revenue model for your “at scale” company. You may be big, but you’re not sustainable. And money doesn’t grow on trees anymore.